Vulnerability and climate risk analysis of the mangrove socio-ecosystem in Colombia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25268/bimc.invemar.2024.53.2.1308Keywords:
Climate change, Colombian Pacific, Colombian Caribbean, Threats, AdaptationAbstract
The mangroves are exposed to threats such as sea level rise, coastal erosion, increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, in addition to socioeconomic pressures. This study aimed to carry out a vulnerability and risk climate analysis for the Colombian mangrove socioecosystem. 22 threat indicators, eight of sensitivity and 18 of adaptive capacity were used, and through multivariate numerical analysis, the vulnerability and climate risk indices for Colombian Pacific and Caribbean mangroves were generated. The mangroves that presented the highest risk in the Caribbean were located in the Manaure, Tubará and, Puerto Escondido municipalities, while in the Pacific these high-risk areas were located on the southern coast in the Olaya Herrera, Francisco Pizarro, and La Tola municipalities, and in
the northern coast in the Bahía Solano municipality. The threat indicators that captured the greatest variability in the analysis were: sea level rise, change in the coastline, change in water supply, change in mangrove coverage due to change in the coastline, change in temperature and
precipitation due to El Niño and La Niña, and human footprint. These results are input for climate management of mangroves in Colombia and will contribute to the National Mangrove Program. Likewise, it can contribute to the National Mangrove Restoration Plan, the Nationally
Determined Contribution of Colombia (NDC), the Long-Term Climate Strategy of Colombia E 2050, and the Territorial Plans for Climate Change Adaptation of the states and municipalities.
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