Análisis de vulnerabilidad y riesgo climático del socioecosistema de manglar en Colombia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25268/bimc.invemar.2024.53.2.1308Palabras clave:
Cambio climático, Pacífico de Colombia, Caribe de Colombia, Amenazas, AdaptaciónResumen
Los manglares están expuestos a amenazas como el aumento del nivel del mar, la erosión costera, el aumento de la frecuencia e intensidad de eventos extremos, además de presiones socioeconómicas. Este estudio tuvo como objetivo realizar un análisis de vulnerabilidad y riesgo climático para el socioecosistema de manglar de Colombia. Se utilizaron 22 indicadores de amenaza, 8 de sensibilidad y 18 de capacidad adaptativa; mediante un análisis numérico multivariado se generaron los índices de vulnerabilidad y riesgo climático para los manglares del Pacífico y del Caribe de Colombia. Los manglares que presentaron mayor riesgo en el Caribe se ubicaron en los municipios de Manaure, Tubará y Puerto Escondido, mientras que en el Pacífico estas áreas de alto riesgo se ubicaron en la costa sur, en los municipios de Olaya Herrera, Francisco Pizarro y La Tola, y en la costa norte de Bahía Solano. Los indicadores de amenaza que capturaron la mayor variabilidad del análisis fueron: el aumento del nivel del mar, el cambio en la línea de costa, el cambio en la oferta hídrica, el cambio en la cobertura de manglares por cambio en la línea de costa, el cambio en la temperatura y la precipitación debido a El Niño y La Niña, y la huella humana. Estos resultados son un insumo para la gestión climática de los manglares en Colombia y contribuirán al Programa Nacional de Manglares. Asimismo, podrán contribuir al Plan Nacional de Restauración de Manglares, la Contribución Nacionalmente Determinada de Colombia (NDC), la Estrategia Climática de Largo Plazo de Colombia E2050, y los Planes Territoriales de Adaptación al Cambio Climático de los departamentos y municipios.
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